FXUS65 KTWC 042050
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
150 PM MST Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A weather system moving through this afternoon will keep
temperatures below normal with slight chances for showers and 
thunderstorms in the White Mountains ending this evening. 
Thereafter, expect dry and warming conditions into early next week 
with triple digit temperatures for Tucson westward by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Skies this afternoon are generally mostly sunny south 
and west of Tucson with partly cloudy skies mainly from Tucson north 
to northeastward. There is an upper low that is weakening/shearing 
out this afternoon as it pushes across the state. This is resulting 
in numerous showers and thunderstorms across the northern half of 
the state but for our forecast area, a mid level inversion is 
keeping cloud development limited. Still a slight chance of showers 
and thunderstorms this afternoon mainly across northern Graham and 
Greenlee counties but dry elsewhere. A bit on the breezy side this 
afternoon with gusts around 20 mph.

Starting Thursday and continuing into next week, our attention will 
turn to more typical June weather which is heat. While temperatures 
will be on an upward swing as heights/thicknesses increase across 
the area over the next few days, it won't get too out of hand for 
this time of year peaking at around 3 to 5 degrees above normal on 
Sunday. The current forecast high in Tucson on Sunday is 104 degrees 
with the NBM showing a probability of 105 or greater at 20 percent. 
These temperatures at 3 to 5 degrees above normal put our area in 
minor to moderate HeatRisk, with the greatest coverage of moderate 
HeatRisk from Tucson eastward. Otherwise, expect continued dry 
conditions with some afternoon breezes and gusts each day. 

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 06/00Z. 
FEW-SCT clouds 8k-12k ft AGL mainly from KTUS north and eastward 
thru 05/03Z then becoming SKC thru the rest of the valid period. 
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible over the White Mountains 
northeast of KSAD thru 05/02Z. Sfc winds westerly-southwesterly 8-14 
kts with gusts to around 20 kts thru 05/03Z, becoming variable at 10 
kts or less thereafter. Sfc winds become westerly-southwesterly 
again aft 05/18Z at 8-14 kts with gusts around 20 kts. Aviation 
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weather system will be passing through this 
afternoon leading to 15%-30% chance for showers and thunderstorms in 
northern Graham and Greenlee Counties into early this evening. 
Expect continued breezy winds especially east of Tucson this 
afternoon. Otherwise, winds will be 15 mph or less through the 
weekend with occasional afternoon gusts around 20 mph. A drying and 
warming trend starts Thursday and continues into the weekend. Min RH 
values will be back in the single digits for valley locations 
Thursday onward. 

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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