FXUS66 KEKA 022209 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 309 PM PDT Fri May 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Midlevel clouds and light drizzle will move in along the coast overnight. Storng norhtelry winds will spread across the are Saturday and Sunday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: -Cooler weather and light rain for the northern half of the area Saturday morning. -Gusty North wind up to 45 mph on high ridges, along shore, and around Lake County Saturday and Sunday afternoon. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An approaching, narrow upper level trough is already starting to impact the area with thick midlevel clouds just starting to approach the shore. Wind mixing has also slightly increased ahead of the torugh helping to brining slughtly gustier and cooler conditions to interior locations. Clouds will cotninue to build overnight as the trough sweeps across and weak low pressure system is forecast to form and skate south along the shore. Very light rain and drizzle will fall along the North Coast as clouds push over the terrain, but accumulation will be minimal for most locations with only a 25% chance of any more than 0.1 inches of rain at low elevations along the coast. 0.1 to 0.2 inches is locally possible at high terrain, but there is esstinally no chance of any amounts above 0.2 inches. There is a very slight chance of thundersotrms (10%) over Trinity county late this evening, but most recent high resolution models show very little instability. Strong north winds will build in behind the system Saturday afternoon and especially Sunday afternoon. Winds will be storngest in exposed areas and high ridges near shore but also around the rim of the Sacramento Valley in Lake County. Most likely peak gusts will be 35 to 40 mph each afternoon with isolated potential of 50 mph gusts on high ridges Sunday afternoon. Generally stable conditions will limit the highest gusts but will also make sustained winds more consistent. The wind speeds and direction are unlikely to damage trees or powerlines but will be a concern for any outdoor events, especially those with tmeporary structures. Wind will most likely help keep most of the area clear each night this weekend depsite increased marine influence push inland. There is high model agreement that warma nd calmer conditions will generally return under a weak ridge by mid next week.A minority (30%) of model show another light rain system late next week with most showing continued mild but dry conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND DEVIATIONS: There is still some uncertianty regarding the rainfall potential early Saturday morning, mostly over high terrain. Almost all models (90%) now show less then wetting rain along the coast. NBM places a roughly 30% chance of at least 0.15 inches of rain at high elevations, but much more rain than that is very unlikely. Otherwise the strong wind Saturday and Sunday afternoon poses both the greatest potential impact and forecast uncertainty. While winds are certain to be gusty, the generally high stability of the atmosphere has caused the gust forecast to vary widely. Some high resolution models show gusts as high as 50 mph along the coast while others struggle to get above 25 mph. There is high confidence that winds will be storngest on Sunday afternoon. In general, wind mixing will likely be greatest around the rim of the Sacramento valley with a 40% chance of gusts exceeding 45 mph. Probabiltiies are lower closer to the coast with only a 20% chance of gusts over 45 mph. More high reoslution models willc ome available ove rthe enxt 12 hours and will hopefully provide some more clarity. /JHW && .AVIATION...Stratus has briefly given relief to coastal terminals this afternoon but are likely to return as satellite imagery shows mid to high altitude cirrus and low altitude stratus just off of the coast. Low strato-cu and marine layer clouds can also be seen via satellite. Convection and associated cumulus clouds are developing in the interior mountains as insatiability has been forecasted for the Yolla Bolly's and eastern Trinity county. Light drizzle is possible this evening at the coastal terminals. KCEC and KACV have a high probability of overcasts cloud cover by 2z with ceilings dropping to less than 6-700 feet tonight. KUKI had LIFR ceiling early this morning with 200 foot ceilings and less than 2 mile visibility with an hour or so of less than 1 mile visibility this morning. A repeat of this is less likely as winds will mostly be northerly and mixing down. Expect northerly winds to build by Saturday late morning with gusts in the low to mid 20kt range. Some periods of LIFR are possible but not likely as probabilities look to be less than 20%. /EYS && .MARINE...Northerly winds are expected build, gusting up in the southern inner and outer waters late tonight and into Saturday, spreading into the northern waters just before sunrise. Small craft advisories will cover initial conditions with up to 7 foot combined seas, transitioning to Gale conditions for the southern waters by 10z and the northern waters in Gale conditions by 20z. Gale force gusts of 35 to 40 kts are possible even nearshore, with the strongest winds likely Saturday, Sunday, and Monday afternoons. These winds will bring very steep, chaotic seas of around 12-15 ft at 10 seconds. Winds begin to ease Tuesday, and continue to gradually ease into the middle of next week. && .BEACH HAZARDS...A northwest swell of around 5 ft at 18 seconds has filled in overnight, which has brought a high risk for sneaker waves given light winds and seas. A Beach Hazard Statement has been issued until 5 PM this afternoon. Be cautious visiting steep beaches and jetties today, and remember to never turn your back on the ocean. JB && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ101-103-104-109. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ450-470. Gale Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ450-470. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ455-475. Gale Warning from 3 AM Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ455-475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png