FXUS66 KHNX 022242
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
342 PM PDT Fri May 2 2025

.UPDATE...Updated 00Z Aviation.

&&


.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Temperatures will remain warm, or several degrees above 
seasonal averages today.

2. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
redevelop this afternoon and last into the early evening hours,
although mainly over the mountains.

3. A cooldown and stronger low pressure system will bring a 
chance of more widespread precipitation and locally gusty winds 
for the weekend.

4. Drying and warming return by the middle of next week with
well above normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mainly clear skies prevail across the forecast
area at this time, although a few cumulus cloud buildups have 
begun over the mountains. The marine layer appears quite deep 
just looking at visible satellite imagery, with fog and stratus 
well inland along the Central and Southern CA coasts to the 
coastal and transverse ranges. Latest Ft Ord Profiler data show 
about a marine layer about 2,500 feet thick, which was similar 
to yesterday. Another round of isolated to scattered 
thunderstorms will develop with a 15-30 percent probability 
across the mountains from Yosemite to Kern County, including the
far southern Sierra to the Tehachapi Mountains and the Frazier 
Park area. Elsewhere, today's highs are projected to reach the 
mid to upper 80's in both the valley and desert, or similar to 
yesterday. The probability of highs above 85 degrees for these 
areas are about 50 to 90 percent, with lesser chances towards 
Los Banos and Merced as some ocean-cooled air could begin to 
flow into these portions with the upper-level trough just 
offshore.

The upper-level trough will push inland over Central California
by Saturday morning, and the next round of precipitation 
begins. Precipitation becomes more widespread by the afternoon,
and isolated thunderstorms develop over mainly the Sierra
Nevada. A much cooler day is on tap with highs mainly in the
70's in the lower elevations. Sunday will also remain cool and
unsettled. Snow levels appear to be mainly above 6,000 feet but
rise to about 7,000-8,000 feet at times, and about 2-3 inches of
snow are possible in the highest elevations each day on 
Saturday and Sunday. The probability of at least 3 inches of 
snow in a 24-hour period is about 20-40 percent during both days
and focused mainly from Yosemite NP to Sequoia NP. Gusty winds 
have a good chance to develop in the Kern County desert by 
Saturday afternoon and last until at least Sunday morning, with 
the best chances over the Mojave Desert slopes (about a 40 to 50
percent chance).

A few lingering mountain showers last into Monday, but most
areas will begin to warm noticeably, including in the Central
Valley where temperature rise back to around seasonal values.
A warming trend will continue into midweek, with the first
90-degree readings of the year in many valley locations by at
least Thursday. Latest 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from the 
Climate Prediction Center are now tilted towards above average 
temperatures and near average precipitation (daily average
precipitation is generally near zero in many of our locations 
during much of May). So, it will begin to feel more like 
summer. While highs in the lower 90's are most likely for the 
warmest locations of the SJ Valley, a low chance (about 5-12 
percent chance) of triple digit heat exists in the latest NBM 
guidance for next Friday in portions of this area.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update: 

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours in much of the
San Joaquin Valley, except for MVFR and -SHRA in eastern 
portions after 18Z Saturday. MVFR/IFR conditions in the form of 
mountain-obscuring showers/thunderstorms possible thru 03Z 
Saturday, including the Sierra Nevada to the Kern County 
mountains. Scattered showers with high elevation snow expected 
over the Sierra by 12Z Saturday, as well as IFR due to mountain
obscurations.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 8 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ338.
Wind Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ337-
339.

&&

$$

BSO/SM

weather.gov/hanford