FXXX12 KWNP 040031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 May 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 4079 (N08E15, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced
numerous low-level C-class flares this period. The region displayed some
intermediate spot growth and total spot count and maintained a weak
beta-gamma magnetic structure. Region 4076 (N06W49, Hsx/alpha) was
stable and quiet throughout the period. New Regions 4080 (S12W76,
Bxo/beta) and 4081 (N07E44, Hrx/alpha) developed midday in the period
and were numbered, but were both quiet and stable. No Earth-directed
CMEs were detected in available imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) events over 04-06 May.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 5,464 pfu observed at 03/1250 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
04-06 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at
background levels through 06 May. 

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was enhanced this period due to continued
negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total IMF strength reached a peak
of 12 nT, while the Bz component was variable between +6 to -9 nT this
period. Solar wind speeds increased from a low of about 580 km/s to a
peak of about 874 km/s at 03/2134 UTC. The phi angle was negative
through a majority of the period.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 04-06 May
due to persistent negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels in response to
negative polarity CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
Periods of active conditions are expected on 04-06 May due to continued
negative polarity CH HSS influences.