FZUS81 KCLE 061008
ICEFBO
GREAT LAKES BREAK-UP OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
506 AM EST MON MAR 6 2017
...VERY LITTLE ICE DEVELOPED DURING THE WINTER OF 2016-2017 ON THE
GREAT LAKES...
THE WINTER OF 2016-2017 WAS ANOTHER MILD WINTER FOR THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. NOVEMBER STARTED OUT WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MONTH WHILE DECEMBER DROPPED BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. JANUARY
WARMED UP AGAIN WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL LAKES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTREME WEST.
FEBRUARY SAW SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ON RECORD...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTH. THE MONTH ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTHERN LAKES AND AROUND 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTH. THE WINTER MONTHS EXPERIENCED A BRIEF LA
NINA RESULTING IN A WARMER THAN NORMAL LATTER HALF OF THE WINTER
SEASON.
THE PRECIPITATION RANGED FROM NEAR NORMAL IN THE WEST TO MUCH BELOW
NORMAL IN THE EAST FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. DECEMBER RECOVERED
WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND JANUARY WAS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY SAW SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH AND EAST BUT BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE LAKES.
THE STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FAVORED THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WINTER. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM HELPED TO
KEEP THE STORMS ON THE WESTERN END OF THE LAKES ALLOWING A SURGE OF
WARM AIR TO STREAM WELL NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEFORE THE
STORM SYSTEMS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. ONCE THIS TOOK PLACE...WRAP
AROUND COLD AIR PLUNGED ACROSS THE REGION SETTING UP LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS TO THE AREA. AS FAR AS SHIPPING IS CONCERNED...THE FORTUNATE
THING WAS THAT THE COLD AIR OUTBREAKS TENDED TO BE VERY BRIEF
LIMITING THE EXPOSURE TO THE COLD OVER THE LAKES TO CAUSE ICE
DEVELOPMENT. THE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE WINTER WAS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH NO LONG STRETCHES OF COLD AIR THROUGH THE WINTER
MONTHS.
WATER TEMPERATURES RAN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE LAKES REGION DUE TO
THE WARMER AIR TEMPERATURES. ICE COVER WAS ABNORMALLY LOW ON THE
GREAT LAKES THIS WINTER SEASON. ONLY A FEW OF THE FAVORED LOCATIONS
DEVELOPED ICE OVER THE WINTER MONTHS. THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE
ERIE SAW SOME ICE DEVELOPMENT BUT NEVER ACHIEVED GREAT THICKNESSES.
THE ICE FIELD WAS CONSTANTLY BATTERED BY WAVES FROM THE STORM
SYSTEMS AND THIS AIDED IN THE FAIRLY QUICK DECAY OF THE ICE FIELD IN
FEBRUARY. THE REST OF LAKE ERIE DID NOT SEE ICE DEVELOPMENT WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING MINIMAL SHORE ICE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. ICE
FILLED GREEN BAY...BAYS DE NOC...THE NORTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN,
AND IN THE ST. MARYS RIVER. THE REST OF THE GREAT LAKES REMAINED
ICE FREE THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS. IT APPEARED THERE WAS A VERY
MINIMAL IMPACT TO VESSELS THIS WINTER.
THE SEASONAL FREEZING DEGREE DAYS AS OF MARCH 5TH WERE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO BEING NORMAL IN THE NORTHWEST BUT WERE WELL BELOW NORMAL
ELSEWHERE ON THE GREAT LAKES.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE COMPARISON OF EACH STATION TO NORMAL...
FREEZING DEGREE DAY ACCUMULATIONS AT SELECTED STATIONS
COMPARED TO NORMAL CALCULATED ON SAT MAR 4:
LOCATION DATE NORMAL CURRENT
----------------------------------------
DULUTH, MN MAR 4 1851 1309
MARQUETTE, MI MAR 4 1582 1197
SAU_S_MAR, MI MAR 4 1279 726
GREENBAY, WI MAR 4 1184 606
MILWAUKEE, WI MAR 4 651 229
CHICAGO, IL MAR 4 502 129
MUSKEGON, MI MAR 4 412 40
ALPENA, MI MAR 4 977 544
DETROIT, MI MAR 4 383 15
TOLEDO, OH MAR 4 385 15
CLEVELAND, OH MAR 4 185 14
BUFFALO, NY MAR 4 525 27
WHEN ICE EXISTS EXTENSIVELY IN THE RIVERS...FLUSHING OF THE ICE
IN THE RIVERS NORMALLY BEGINS IN THE FIRST WEEK
OF MARCH. OCCASIONAL COLD SPELLS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
WEEK OR SO BUT THE COLD AIR SHOULD HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON ANY ICE
DEVELOPMENT.
DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH SUN ANGLE...THE
REMAINING ICE WILL LIKELY QUICKLY DEPART THE LAKES. THE LIMITED ICE
REMAINING SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE SHIPPING LANES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE ICE SEASON.
THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE REST OF MARCH INTO EARLY APRIL CALLS FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE 30 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
THE 90 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 90 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
ICE CONDITIONS CAN BE SIGNIFICANTLY ALTERED BY STRONG WINDS AND
SUNSHINE. PERSISTENT WINDS INTO A WATERWAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
JAMMING FROM ICE FLOES THAT STILL EXIST. ON THE OTHER HAND...WINDS
OUT OF A WATER WAY WILL FLUSH THE REMAINING ICE INTO THE OPEN WATER
WHERE MELTING MAY OCCUR AT A FASTER RATE.
LARGE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE HIGH SUN
ANGLE CAN HELP BREAK UP THE ICE FLOES MORE QUICKLY THAN WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ICE OUTLOOKS ISSUED
ON MONDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND FRIDAY FROM THE NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE ICE BECOMES INSIGNIFICANT TO
SHIPPING.
THE NEXT FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE 2017-2018 WINTER SEASON WILL BE
ISSUED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER AND WILL BE ISSUED EVERY
TWO WEEKS AFTER UNTIL THE ICE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON THE GREAT LAKES.
$$
LOMBARDY