NZUS93 KDDC 061903
LLLDDC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
203 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

At 12Z Friday morning, a  -18C 500mb trough was located over Wyoming. Ahead of this upper trough, a moist baroclinic zone at 700mb extended from northeast Colorado into western Nebraska. Precipitable water values, based on the DDC sounding, was 1.1 inches, which is near the 90th percentile for this time of year.

Short term models are in agreement on progressing this upper trough into northwest Kansas by evening, with enhanced moisture and large scale lift spreading into southwest Kansas early tonight. As the upper level trough approaches and encounters the abundant moisture in place across southwest Kansas... widespread rainfall, heavy at times, is likely. Given the moisture and lift overnight, there is little reason to disagree with the HREFs high 6hourly probabilities for 1 and 2 inch rainfall totals. Furthermore, the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index of 0.7 to 0.8 between 00Z Saturday and 00Z Sunday aligns well with the HREF forecast track for the heaviest rainfall. This  has enhanced confidence for keeping ongoing Flood Watch, as the potential for numerous flash flooding events remain likely, especially in areas that received 2 to 4 inches of rain during last nights event.

In addition to heavy rainfall, we will be monitoring the potential for severe thunderstorms across extreme southwest Kansas.  A surface boundary that previously pushed south into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle is expected to lift northward. As it does, a moist southeast flow will develop north of this boundary, leading to improved moist upslope flow.  This combined with sufficient shear and instability forecast by the CAMS will create an environment favorable for discrete supercells late today through early this evening.  Similar to last night, any storms that develop near the boundary could produce hail larger than 2 inches, isolated damaging winds, and possibly a few tornadoes.  As newer short term models filter in and considering the location of the low level theta-e axis north of the boundary, there is concern that the SPC may have placed the enhanced hail risk a little too far northeast. Currently it appears that the main severe threat may be closer to the Oklahoma border. However, a slight northward shift in the surface boundary would place locations such as Syracuse, Garden City, and Dodge City within the zone of enhanced hail potential.

After midnight, the upper level trough will move across western Kansas. Rainfall will gradually taper off from west to east. A surface high will then build into southwest Kansas, offering a temporary break from the active weather pattern on Saturday.

On Sunday, another cool front will move through western Kansas associated with a stronger northern branch upper level trough tracking across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. As this cold front passes during the afternoon, thunderstorms may develop across southwest Kansas. At this time however the ensemble clusters currently suggest that the best chances for CAPE values >1000 and shear of+30knots will  be late in the day and near the Oklahoma border so any risk for strong or severe thunderstorms should be focused south of the Arkansas River.  Large hail and strong wind gusts are expected to be the primary hazards.

Looking into the first half of next week, ensemble clusters indicated good agreement on an upper level ridge moving eastward across the Rockies and into the Plains. This pattern will favor warmer, drier conditions across western Kansas. Thunderstorm chances however are expected to return later in the workweek as a new upper level trough begins to develop over the western United States, with an upper-level low sliding south along the coast of British Columbia toward the Pacific Northwest.