NZUS93 KDLH 041615 LLLDLH MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-050415- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Duluth MN 1115 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Through the remainder of the work week, expect predominantly zonal flow across the Northland. This pattern will generally maintain temperatures near seasonal normals. A series of weak upper-level disturbances are forecast to propagate through this flow, triggering isolated to scattered rain showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours when diurnal heating provides an additional lift mechanism. The first such disturbance brings a slight chance (around 25%) of showers to northern Minnesota this afternoon. However, model soundings indicate a very dry boundary layer, with afternoon relative humidity values forecast to drop into the 20-25% range. This dryness, particularly pronounced in the Minnesota Arrowhead, is contributing to near-critical fire weather conditions. Consequently, a significant portion of any shower activity may manifest as virga. Inverted-V forecast soundings, suggest the potential for decent downdraft CAPE (DCAPE). Should showers or thunderstorms develop, this could translate to brief, gusty outflow winds, with high-resolution guidance indicating isolated gusts potentially reaching 30-40 mph. A similar, though perhaps slightly diminished, potential for afternoon showers will exist on Thursday. By Friday into early Saturday, a weak upper-level shortwave trough is progged to track across the area. This system will advect precipitable water (PWAT) values in the 0.75 to 1.00-inch range, which is near climatological normal for early June. This is expected to result in a period of light rain, with the highest probabilities currently favoring the southern half of the County Warning Area (CWA). Embedded thunderstorms are also possible Friday afternoon. Ensemble solutions continue to show increasing support for a more organized low-pressure system to eject from the Canadian Prairies and track into the Upper Midwest from Sunday into Monday. This system presents a more promising opportunity for widespread, beneficial rainfall. Current probabilities for receiving 0.25 inches or more of precipitation range from 50-80%, with the highest chances currently focused over the Minnesota Arrowhead and extending eastward towards the South Shore of Lake Superior. While systems originating from the Canadian Prairies are not typically prolific moisture carriers, the anticipated cut-off nature of this low could lead to a prolonged period of cloudy skies and scattered light rain showers over a couple of days and probably another round of smoke as the flow originates off of the wildfires in Manitoba. Further into next week, longer-range ensemble guidance indicates a continued trend towards increasing atmospheric moisture content. This suggests that periodic chances for rainfall may persist as additional disturbances transit the region. Near-normal temperatures persist this week, but a dry airmass will elevate fire weather concerns today and Thursday. This afternoon, widespread minimum RH of 20-30% and west winds of 8-12 mph with gusts 15-20 mph (locally to 25 mph) will create near-critical fire weather conditions in the Minnesota Arrowhead; isolated showers there could also produce erratic, gusty outflow winds without significant wetting. Thursday remains dry with minimum RH of 20-35% (lowest along the International Border) but lighter winds. Scattered light showers (generally <0.10) Friday-Saturday from Brainerd to Hayward offer little relief, with a better chance for widespread wetting rainfall Sunday-Monday.