NZUS93 KDMX 191829 LLLDMX IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097- 200629- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Des Moines IA 129 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 130 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wet from late tonight into Wednesday. 1-3 inches of rain is expected south of Interstate 94. The highest totals (2-3 inches locally as high as 3-4 inches) will be in northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southwest Wisconsin. - Some cold record high temperatures may be tied to broken on Tuesday - It will remain cool and dry from Wednesday night into the Memorial Day weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Wet from Late Tonight into Wednesday A 500 mb trough and 850 mb closed low pressure area will move into the area tonight. As this occurs, the 850 mb moisture transport will climb into the 40 to 50 knot range late tonight and continue into Tuesday evening. The 19.12z HREF continues to bring 1 to 1.4 inches of precipitable water values into the region south of Interstate 94. Meanwhile, a dry easterly flow will result in much lower precipitable water values (0.4 to 1 inch) for areas north of Interstate 94. Areas south of Interstate 94 will likely see rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches and up to 1 inch (highest near Interstate 94) for the remainder of the area. The HREF ensemble probability-match mean suggest that there may be some localized rainfall totals of 3-4 inches in northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southwest Wisconsin. With the very dry antecedent conditions over the past 3 weeks, not anticipating any issues with river flooding. Like the past couple of days, much of the instability remains south of the area. The ensemble mean for most unstable CAPEs remain below 250 J/kg across northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. The mean 0-6 km wind shear remains in the 20-30 knot range. As a result, not anticipating any severe weather. Wednesday Night into the Memorial Day Weekend In the wake of this system, northwest and north winds will bring dry and cool air into the region. High temperatures through Saturday will be primarily in the lower and mid-60s and in the mid to upper 60s for Sunday. These temperatures will be 5 to 10 F cooler than normal. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 East winds will continue to advect in very dry (dew points in the lower to mid-30s) into the region this afternoon. This will result a continual dissipation of the showers west of the Mississippi River. The CAMs continue to suggest that most of these showers will not reach KLSE or much of western Wisconsin. As a result, ceilings and visibilities will be primarily VFR this afternoon. As a 500 mb shortwave approaches the area and closed 850 mb low approaches the region tonight, another round of rain will move into the area. This rain will then continue into Tuesday. Ceilings will gradually lower to IFR/MVFR overnight and early Tuesday morning. Visibilities will become MVFR around 20.08z at KRST and around 20.09z at KLSE. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 With it being very dry across much of the area over the past 3 weeks, still not overly concerned with river flooding at this time. While there will likely be some response in area rivers in northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southwestern Wisconsin, it would take much more QPF (3+ inches) and higher rain rates (up 2 tenths of an inch per hour) than currently forecast to see rivers even approach action and minor flood stage. As a result, soils and rivers should be able to handle the forecasted rainfall. However, there may be some ponding of water in poor drainage areas. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Rain and low clouds will result in very little temperature rise on Tuesday, High temperatures will likely be in the 40s and lower 50s. These temperatures will be close to the daily record cold high temperatures for May 20. While La Crosses record of 44F in 1892 looks safe, Rochesters cold high record of 46F in 1892 might be in jeopardy of being potentially tied. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Boyne AVIATION...Boyne HYDROLOGY...Boyne CLIMATE...Boyne