NZUS93 KSGF 231648 LLLSGF KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-240448- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Springfield MO 1148 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered rain chances (20-40%) west of Hwy 65 this afternoon. - More widespread rain chances (50-90%) Thursday and Friday. - Scattered rain lingers through the weekend and into early next week. - Consecutive days of consistent rain have the potential to result in flooding impacts, particularly in the western portions of the region where more rain is expected. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Tuesday evening and early this morning, showers and thunderstorms were ongoing across eastern Kansas. This activity has produced a few higher wind gusts in the last few hours, but had largely remained subsevere east of Wichita. As the storms approach the western Missouri border, they begin to leave the area best forced by the low level jet as well as the better moisture and die out pretty quickly. The area most at risk for seeing a shower or storm this morning is the far northwestern portion of the CWA as it lies along the right exit region of the jet. That being said, PoPs here remain below 50% the entirety of the day. East of ~I-49, PoPs remain below 20% today. We`ll see clouds increase through the day as moisture streams in and upper level shortwaves pass by. Continued southerly flow means another warm day, with highs around 80. Cloud cover and little precipitation will help lows to stay warm, in the mid to upper 50s overnight. Precipitation begins to get more organized across the southern Plains in the early morning hours Thursday. More widespread rain is expected to overspread the area beginning in the west, with PoPs in excess of 80% tapering down to around 50% on the eastern edge of the CWA. Rain will continue overnight with perhaps some good breaks in the evening hours before the next wave of forcing gets itself together. Only a few degrees cooler for highs on Thursday, in the mid to upper 70s, as these passing surface boundaries are quite diffuse. Lows Thursday night stay warm, right around 60. The ingredients are not there to support severe storms with this activity, though there may be occasional lightning. The greatest concern with this rain is that it will be falling on already saturated ground due to the flooding event of last weekend. The WPC has included the entire area in their excessive rainfall forecast for Thursday into Friday, with Hwy 65 and west highlighted in a Slight (2/4). Potential flooding impacts will need to be watched closely for the end of the week. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 A surface trough keeps rain going through Friday, with 70-80% PoPs to start the day tapering off to 30% or less by the evening. More shortwaves pass through Saturday and Sunday, forcing more widely scattered showers and storms. A low deepens across the northern Plains early next week. Some prefrontal energy may spark a few showers on Monday, but the bigger show looks to be later on Monday into Tuesday. This is, of course, a whole week away, so the details will likely change. However, the SPC has outlined the northwestern portion of the area in a 15% risk in the Day 7 outlook. Mid-range models seem to be in pretty good agreement on the synoptics at this point. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 528 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 VFR conditions through the period. Low chance for an isolated shower or storm along the Kansas/Missouri border. Light southeasterly winds. High clouds increase through the period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$