NZUS97 KILN 110838
RWTDAY
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 

Low pressure system will be lifting north up the Appalachians Monday 
night, pushed by a strong southwest flow on the east side of an 
upper trough. Moisture will be transported on a long fetch from the 
Gulf of Mexico, and though heaviest precip will stay well to the 
east under deeper moisture and stronger lift, there should be enough 
forcing and moisture to produce a couple of tenths precip in the ILN 
area. Precip starting as rain will change to snow as temps fall to 
freezing due to cold advection, diurnal and dynamic cooling. Expect 
snow amounts in the 1 to 2 inch range in northern locations, with 
under an inch farther south where temperature profiles will be less 
favorable for snow crystal development. 

Precip will diminish to snow and rain showers Tuesday as the system 
departs quickly. Surface high pressure forming under a westerly flow 
aloft will then provide dry conditions on Wednesday. 

Models are in fairly good agreement with respect to the next low due 
to arrive Thursday. Current indications are that precip starting as 
snow will transition to rain by Thursday afternoon. Any change in 
track may result in differing precip types, though significant 
winter precip appears unlikely at this time with models showing 
lower tropospheric thicknesses too warm for snow to be prevalent. 

High pressure may follow with dry weather on Friday. A few snow and 
rain showers could develop Saturday on a chilly cyclonic flow off 
the Great Lakes.

Temperatures staying below normal will vary a bit due to advection 
associated with the low pressure systems. Northerly flow around the 
first low will provide highs in the 30s Tuesday and Wednesday. There 
could be a modest rise to the 40s Thursday and Friday under warm 
advection and increasing geopotential heights. Readings may slide 
back to around 40 Saturday during the next round of cold advection. 

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