WTIO30 FMEE 211344
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/3/20242025
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BHEKI)

2.A POSITION 2024/11/21 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.7 S / 56.5 E
(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 335 SW: 215 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 95 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/11/22 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

24H: 2024/11/22 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 0

36H: 2024/11/23 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 10 NW: 0

48H: 2024/11/23 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2024/11/24 00 UTC: 26.4 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2024/11/24 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=2.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CLEARLY INTENSIFIED IN
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, AS THE SYSTEM IS AT THE WARM ENTRANCE TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET. THIS BAROCLINIC EFFECT, COMBINED WITH THE EFFECT OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, ENABLED GALES TO BE
MAINTAINED. A SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS BY DVORAK SUGGESTS THAT BHEKI IS
ONCE AGAIN A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT.

BHEKI CONTINUES ITS SOUTH-WESTERLY TRACK. ITS MOVEMENT IS DRIVEN BY
LOW-LEVEL FLOWS ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE MASCAREIGNES
ANTICYCLONE. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF REUNION, BEFORE PLUNGING TOWARDS SOUTHERN
LATITUDES AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND, CAUGHT UP BY THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.

BEHKI IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR THE TIME BEING, BEFORE
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AS SHOWN BY THE ISPS OF THE AROME
AND IFS MODELS. NEVERTHELESS, THIS WEEKEND, IN A HIGHLY SHEARED
CONTEXT, BEHKI SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A RESIDUAL SYSTEM DEVOID OF ANY
PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER, THEN DISSIPATE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MALAGASY COAST.


THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER GENERATES IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND.=