WTPN21 PHNC 061430
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3N 106.8W TO 9.4N 100.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.1N 106.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) IS LOCATED NEAR
13.1N 106.4W, APPROXIMATELY 426NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND,
MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
VALUES OF 10-15 KTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 DEGREES C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93E WILL CONTINUE AS A WEAKLY
DEFINED CIRCULATION AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 071430Z.
//
9324110118 113N1094W  15
9324110200 113N1096W  20
9324110206 112N1099W  25
9324110212 112N1102W  25
9324110218 114N1104W  25
9324110300 114N1107W  25
9324110306 114N1110W  25
9324110312 115N1110W  25
9324110318 113N1108W  30
9324110400 112N1105W  30
9324110406 112N1101W  30
9324110412 110N1098W  30
9324110418 110N1092W  30
9324110500 111N1088W  30
9324110506 113N1082W  30
9324110512 116N1076W  30
9324110518 121N1071W  25
9324110600 126N1069W  25
9324110606 128N1065W  30
9324110612 131N1064W  30
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